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2025 Vol.21, Issue 1 Preview Page

Original Article

Analysis of Rainfall Characteristics of Debrisflow Disasters in Gangwon Province Using SSP 5-8.5 Climate Change Scenarios

SSP 5-8.5 기후변화시나리오를 이용한 강원지역의 토사재해유발 강우특성분석

김병식1ㆍ강동호2ㆍ이병현3ㆍ임형규4*

Byung Sik Kim1, Dong Ho Kang2, Byung Hyun Lee3, Hyoung Kyu Lim4*

1Professor, Department of Artificial & Software, Kangwon National University, Samcheok, Republic of Korea
2Research Engineer, Department of Hydro Science and Engineering Research, Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology, Goyang, Republic of Korea
3Senior Reasrch Engineer, AI for Climate & Disaster management Center, Samcheok, Republic of Korea
4Senior General Manager, Electrial Division, KHNP Hanul Headquater, Uljin, Republic of Korea
31 March 2025. pp. 147-161
PDF Citation
Abstract
Purpose: Due to climate change, the amount and intensity of rainfall is increasing, and localized heavy rainfall in summer is causing damage in various environments such as cities and mountainous areas. Recently, landslides and debris flows have been occurring in mountainous areas due to such heavy rainfall, and research is needed to respond to landslide disasters due to climate change. Therefore, this study analyzed the characteristics of rainfall that causes landslides using the SSP 5-8.5 climate change scenario presented in the IPCC 6th report by analyzing six rainfall extreme indices for 59 rainfall stations in Korea. Method: The risk of occurrence of rainfall that causes landslides was analyzed by analyzing the number of times rainfall exceedances that cause landslides using the results of previous studies for the Gangwon-do region, which is mostly composed of mountainous areas. The future period was divided into Future 1 (2011~2040), Future 2 (2041~2017), and Future 3 (2071~2100). Result: The analysis of the rainfall characteristics that cause landslides showed that the frequency of exceeding the threshold of heavy rainfall, especially among the six rainfall extreme indices, is increasing nationwide. In the future period in Gangwon-do, the number of rainfall exceedances that cause landslides is analyzed to increase at all seven stations, with Daegwallyeong, Chuncheon, and Hongcheon stations showing the largest increase in the number of rainfall exceedances that cause landslides. Conclusion: In the future, it is expected to be used as a basis for sediment disaster prevention according to the degree of risk by analyzing the risk of sediment disaster occurrence by region through the collection of damage cases at the national level.
Keywords
Debrisflow
Debrisflow-Indeced Rainfall Threshold
Extreme Rainfall Index
Debrisflow Risk
연구목적: 기후변화로 인하여 강우량과 강우강도는 증가하고 있으며 여름철 국지성 집중호우로 인하여 도시, 산지 등 다양한 환경에서 피해가 발생하고 있다. 최근에도 이러한 집중호우로 인하여 산지 지역에서 산사태 및 토석류 피해가 발생하고 있으며 기후변화에 따른 토사재해를 대응하기 위한 연구가 필요하다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 IPCC 6차 보고서에서 제시하고 있는 SSP 5-8.5 기후변화시나리오를 이용하여 국내 59개 강우관측소를 대상으로 6가지의 강우극한지수 분석을 통해 토사재해유발 강우특성을 분석하였다. 연구방법: 대부분이 산지로 이루어져있는 강원도 지역에 대하여 토사재해유발 강우량 관련 선행연구결과를 활용하여 미래 토사재해 유발 강우량 초과 발생횟수 분석을 통해 토사재해 유발 강우량 발생 위험성을 분석하였다. 미래 기간은 Future 1(2011~2040), Future 2(2041~2017), Future 3(2071~2100) 기간으로 구분하였다. 연구결과: 토사재해유발 강우특성 분석결과 6개 강우극한지수 중 특히나 집중호우 한계점 이상 발생빈도는 전국적으로 증가하는 것으로 분석되었다. 강원도 토사재해유발 관련 선행연구 결과를 활용하였을 때, 미래 기간에 토사재해 유발 강우량을 초과하는 횟수는 강원도 내 7개 관측소 모두 증가하는 것으로 분석되었으며 대관령, 춘천, 홍천 지점에서 토사재해유발 강우량 초과 발생 횟수가 가장 많이 증가하는 것으로 분석되었다. 결론: 향후 전국단위의 피해사례 수집을 통하여 지역별 토사재해유발 강우량 산정 결과를 확대한다면, 토사재해 발생 위험성 분석을 통하여 위험 정도에 따른 토사재해 방재의 기초자료로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.
키워드
토사재해
토사재해유발 강우량
극한강우지수
토사재해 위험성
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Information
  • Publisher :The Korean Society of Disaster Information
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국재난정보학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
  • Journal Title(Ko) :한국재난정보학회논문집
  • Volume : 21
  • No :1
  • Pages :147-161
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.15683/kosdi.2025.3.31.147
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