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2024 Vol.20, Issue 3 Preview Page

Original Article

The Analysis on the Relationship between Elections and Wild Fires in Korea From 1991 to 2023

최근 30 년간 우리나라 선거와 산불 발생의 상관관계 분석

최주경1ㆍ임찬진2ㆍ채희문3*

Ju Kyeong Choi1, Chan Jin Lim2, Heemun Chae3*

1Master’s Course, Department of forest Environment Systems, Kangwon National University, Chuncheon, Republic of Korea
2Ph.D. Candidate, Department of forest Environment System, Kangwon National University, Chuncheon, Republic of Korea
3 Professor, Department of forest Environment System, Kangwon National University, Chuncheon, Republic of Korea
30 September 2024. pp. 519-532
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Abstract
Purpose: This study analyze the correlation between elections and wild Fire to provide information necessary for formulating wild fire prevention and response policies. Method: Data of the Forest Service and the Meteorological Administration were used to compare the occurrence and burned area of wild fires in election and non-election years. Statistical significance between the two groups was analyzed with an independent sample t-test, and MANOVA(multivariate analysis of variance) was used to evaluate the effects of temperature and humidity. Result: There was no statistical significance in the occurrence and burn area of wild fires between election and non-election years. However, analysis of the raw data indicated significantly greater damage in election years. MANOVA revealed that election status, temperature, and humidity did not significantly impact the occurrence and burn area of large wild fires. Conclusion: Wild fire occurrence and burned area were higher election years than non-election years, possibly due to election-related social factors. Thus, enhancing wild fire prevention and response policies in election years and considering weather factors and social activites is necessary.
Keywords
Wild Fire
Election
Weather Factor
Independent Samples t-test
Multivariate Analysis of Variance
연구목적: 본 연구는 선거와 산불 발생 간의 상관관계를 분석하여 산불 예방 및 대응 정책 수립에 필요한 정보를 제공하는 데 있다. 연구방법: 산림청 산불 대장과 기상청 자료를 활용하여 선거 연도와 비선거 연도의 산불 발생 횟수와 피해 면적을 비교하였다. 독립 표본 t-검정을 통해 두 집단 간의 통계적 유의성을 검토하였고 다변량 분산 분석을 통해 기온과 습도의 영향을 평가하였다. 연구결과: 산불 발생 횟수와 피해 면적에 있어서 선거 연도와 비선거 연도 간의 통계적 유의성은 없었다. 그러나 전체 데이터를 사용한 분석에서는 선거 연도가 비선거 연도보다 유의미하게 더 큰 피해가 있었다. 다변량 분산 분석 결과 기온, 습도, 선거 여부는 대형 산불 발생 횟수와 피해 면적에 유의미한 영향을 미치지 않았다. 결론: 선거 연도의 산불 발생 횟수와 피해 면적이 비선거 연도보다 높았으며 이는 선거와 관련된 사회적 요인에 기인할 가능성이 있다. 따라서 선거 연도에는 산불 예방 및 대응 정책을 강화할 필요가 있으며 기상 조건과 사회적 활동을 고려한 통합적 접근이 요구된다.
키워드
산불
선거
기상인자
독립 표본 t- 검정
다변량 분산 분석
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Information
  • Publisher :The Korean Society of Disaster Information
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국재난정보학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
  • Journal Title(Ko) :한국재난정보학회논문집
  • Volume : 20
  • No :3
  • Pages :519-532
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.15683/kosdi.2024.9.30.519
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