Original Article
Abstract
References
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Purpose: This study empirically evaluates the economic feasibility of mandating universal sprinkler installation in elementary, middle, and high school facilities in South Korea, and proposes a rational fire safety policy direction. Method: Using five-year (2021–2025) fire data from the National Fire Data System and Public Procurement Service unit costs, school-level fire occurrence rates (λₖ) were calculated and a 25-year CBA was performed with a social discount rate of 4.5%. Result: B/C ratios were 0.0023 (elementary), 0.0017 (middle), and 0.0042 (high school), all below 1.0. The extended model including indirect benefits (0.0823–0.1858), sensitivity analyses, and PPP-adjusted international comparisons also failed to meet the feasibility threshold. Conclusion: As universal mandatory installation proves fiscally inefficient, a risk-based, differentiated approach targeting high-risk facilities such as dormitories, laboratories, and aging structures is proposed as a policy alternative.
연구목적: 본 연구는 초·중·고 교육시설의 스프링클러 의무 설치 정책에 대한 경제적 타당성을 실증적으로 평가하고, 합리적인 화재안전 정책 방향을 제시하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 연구방법: 국가화재정보시스템의 5개년(2021~2025) 화재 데이터와 조달청 실제 발주 단가를 활용하여 학교급별 화재 발생 빈도(λₖ)를 산출하고, 사회적 할인율 4.5%를 적용한 25년 분석 기간의 비용편익분석(CBA)을 수행하였다. 연구결과: B/C 비율은 초등학교 0.0023, 중학교 0.0017, 고등학교 0.0042로 모두 1.0 미만이었다. 간접편익 포함 확장 모형(0.0823~0.1858)과 민감도 분석·PPP 기반 국제 비교에서도 경제적 타당성 기준을 충족하지 못하였다. 결론: 전면 의무화 정책은 재정 효율성이 낮으므로, 기숙사·실험실·노후 건축물·대규모 시설 등 고위험 환경을 중심으로 한 위험기반 차등 설치 접근이 보다 합리적인 정책 대안임을 제안한다.
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- Publisher :The Korean Society of Disaster Information
- Publisher(Ko) :한국재난정보학회
- Journal Title :Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
- Journal Title(Ko) :한국재난정보학회논문집
- Volume : 22
- No :2
- Pages :581-592
- DOI :https://doi.org/10.15683/kosdi.2026.6.30.581
Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
