Journal of the Society of Disaster Information ISSN:1976-2208(Print) 2671-5287(Online) 한국재난정보학회논문집

Purpose: Currently, the only routes that enter Yeongjong Island are Yeongjong Bridge and Incheon Bridge, which are private roads. The purpose of this study is to predict and study changes in transportation demand for new routes and two existing routes according to the plan to open the 3rd Bridge, a new route, in December 2025. Method: The basic data for traffic demand forecast were O/D and NETWORK data from 2021.08, KOTI. In order to examine the reliable impact of Yeongjong Bridge and Incheon Bridge on the opening of the 3rd Bridge, it is necessary to correct the traffic distribution of Yeongjong Island and Incheon International Airport to suit reality, and in this study, the trip distribution by region was corrected and applied using Mobile Big Data. Result: As of 2026, the scheduled year of the opening of the 3rd Bridge, two alternatives, Alternative 1 (2,000 won) and Alternative 2 (4,000 won), were established and future transportation demand analysis was conducted, In the case of Alternative 1, which is similar to the existing private road toll restructuring, the traffic volume of the 3rd Bridge was predicted to be 42,836 out of 199,101 veh/day in the Yeongjong area in 2026, and the traffic volume reduction rate of the existing road was analyzed as 21.5%. Conlclusion: As a result of the review (based on Alternative 1), the proportion of convertted traffic on the 3rd Yanji Bridge was estimated to be 70% of Yeongjong Bridge and 30% of Incheon Bridge, and 21.5% of the predicted traffic reduction on the existing road when the 3rd Yanji Bridge was opened is considered appropriate considering the results of the case review and changes in conditions. It is judged that it is a way to secure the reliability of the prediction of traffic demand because communication big data is used to reflect more realistic traffic distribution when predicting future traffic demand.