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2021 Vol.17, Issue 4 Preview Page

Original Article

A Possibility Analysis of Domestic Terrorism in South Korea by Focusing on Afghanistan under the Taliban Forces

탈레반의 아프가니스탄 장악에 따른 국내 테러 발생 가능성 분석

오한길1ㆍ안계원2*ㆍ배병걸3

Hangil Oh1, Kyewon Ahn2*, Byunggul Bae3

1Research Officer, National Disaster Management Research Institute, Ulsan, Republic of Korea
2Researcher, National Disaster Management Research Institute, Ulsan, Republic of Korea
3Research Officer, National Disaster Management Research Institute, Ulsan, Republic of Korea
31 December 2021. pp. 848-863
PDF Citation
Abstract
Purpose: On August 16, 2021, the Taliban established the Taliban regime after conquering capital Kabul of the Afghan by using the strong alliance of international terrorist organizations. The Taliban carried out terrorism targeting the Korean people, including the kidnapping of Kim Seon-il in 2004, the abduction of a member of the Saemmul Church in 2007, and the attack on Korean Provincial Reconstruction Team in 2009. Therefore, this research has shown the possibility of Taliban terrorism in Korea. Method: Based on the statistical data on terrorism that occurred in Afghanistan, Taliban’s various terrorist activities such as tactics, strategies, and weapons are examined. Consequently, the target facilities and the type of terrorist attacks are analyzed. Result: The Taliban are targeting the Afghan government as their main target of attack, and IS and the Taliban differ in their selection of targets for terrorism. Conclusion: From the result of this research, we recommend Korea need to reinforce the counter terrorism system in soft targets. Because If the Taliban, which has seized control of Afghanistan, and IS, which has established a worldwide terrorism network, cooperate to threaten domestic multi-use facilities with bombing, the Republic of Korea may face a terrorist crisis with insufficient resources and counter-terrorism related countermeasures.
Keywords
Taliban
Afghanistan
Domestic Terrorism
Possibility of Terrorism
Terrorism Statistics
연구목적: 2021년 8월 16일 탈레반은 국제테러조직간 공고한 동맹관계를 이용하여, 아프가니스탄 수도 카불을 점령한 뒤 탈레반 정권을 수립하였다. 탈레반은 대한민국 국민을 대상으로, 2004년 김선일 피랍, 2007년 샘물교회 교인 피랍, 2009년 지역재건팀에 대한 공격하는 등 테러를 자행하였으며, 2021 대한민국 아프간 난민 구출 작전에 대해서는 적대감을 가지고 있다. 따라서 본 고에서는 탈레반에 의한 대한민국 테러 발생 가능성을 살펴보고자 한다. 연구방법: 샘물교회 피랍사건으로 국내에도 잘 알려진 탈레반의 전술, 전략, 공격무기 등 다양한 테러활동을 살펴보고, 아프가니스탄에서 발생한 테러 통계 데이터를 기반으로 국내에서 발생 가능한 테러유형과 테러대상시설을 분석하였다. 연구결과: 탈레반은 아프간 정부를 주요 공격대상으로 하고 있으며, IS와 탈레반은 테러대상 선정에 있어 차이를 보인다. 결론: 아프간을 장악한 탈레반과 전 세계 테러리즘 네트워크를 구축한 IS가 협력하여, 국내 다중이용시설을 대상으로 폭탄테러의 위협을 가한다면, 대한민국은 대테러 관련 미흡한 자원과 대책으로 테러 위기에 직면할 수 있다.
키워드
탈레반
아프가니스탄
국내 테러
테러 발생 가능성
테러통계
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Information
  • Publisher :The Korean Society of Disaster Information
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국재난정보학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
  • Journal Title(Ko) :한국재난정보학회논문집
  • Volume : 17
  • No :4
  • Pages :848-863
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.15683/kosdi.2021.12.31.848
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