A Study on the Analysis of Human Casualty Factors in Chemical Accidents in Transportation Vehicles Using Logistic Regression Analysis

doi:10.15683/kosdi.2025.3.31.010

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2025 Vol.21, Issue 1 Preview Page Next Page

Original Article

A Study on the Analysis of Human Casualty Factors in Chemical Accidents in Transportation Vehicles Using Logistic Regression Analysis 로지스틱 회귀분석을 활용한 운송차량 화학사고 인명피해 요인 분석에 관한 연구: 김동엽¹ㆍ이태형²*
Dong Yeup Kim¹, Tae-Hyung Lee²*; ¹Research Fellow, National Institute of Chemical Safety, Cheongju, Republic of Korea
²Researcher, National Institute of Chemical Safety, Cheongju, Republic of Korea

31 March 2025. pp. 10-21

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Abstract

Purpose: Through this study, the characteristics of chemical accidents in transportation vehicles that occurred from 2014 to 2023 and the factors affecting human casualties were analyzed. Chemical accidents involving transportation vehicles, which often occur on the road, can be more dangerous as they often occur in situations where there are no safety devices or response personnel to prevent the spread of damage, so appropriate prevention and response measures are needed. Method: The type of chemical accident caused by a transport vehicle was 161 out of 166 accidents caused by leakage, or 97% of the total. In addition, as a result of the logistic regression analysis to analyze the factors affecting human casualties, the ‘leakage amount’ variable showed statistically significant results (p<0.05). Result and Conclusion: Therefore, prevention measures against this need to be strengthened. In the future, multifaceted efforts are needed, such as preparing measures to prevent accidents through research on the factors that cause casualties in chemical accidents in transportation vehicles and independent variables with a high causal relationship

Keywords

Chemical Accidents

Transportation Vehicles

Human Casualty

Logistic Regression

Leakage Amount

연구목적: 본 연구를 통해 2014년부터 2023년까지 발생한 운송차량 화학사고 특성과 인명피해 영향 요인을 분석하였다. 도로 위에서 발생이 많은 운송차량 화학사고는 피해 확산을 막을 수 있는 안전장치나 대응 인력이 없는 상황에서 발생하는 경우가 많아 더욱 위험할 수 있기 때문에 이에 대한 적절한 예방 및 대응 방안이 필요하다. 연구방법: 운송차량에 의해 발생한 화학사고 유형은 누출에 의한 사고가 전체 166건 중 161건이었고 비율적으로는 97%를 나타냈다. 또한, 인명피해 영향요인 분석을 위한 로지스틱 회귀 분석 결과 “누출량” 변수가 통계적으로 유의한(P<0.05) 결과를 나타냈다. 대부분의 사고가 누출에 의한 사고였고 인명피해 영향요인 분석 결과에서도 누출이라는 변수가 유의미한 결과를 보였다. 연구결과 및 결론: 따라서, 이에 대한 예방 방안을 강화해야 할 것이다. 향후 운송차량 화학사고 인명피해 발생 요인과 인과관계가 높은 독립변수 발굴에 대한 연구를 통해 사고 예방을 위한 대책 마련 등 다각적인 노력이 필요하다.

키워드

화학사고

운송차량 사고

인명 피해

로지스틱 회귀분석

누출량

References

Chung, S.B., Kim, Y.W., Park, M.K. (2011). "Developmentof HAZ-RAM for reducing HAZMAT transportation accident." Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation, Vol. 11, No. 4, pp. 87-94. 10.9798/KOSHAM.2011.11.4.087
Hartley, R.D., Maddan, S., Walker, J.T. (2006). "Sentencing practices under the Arkansas sentencing guideline structure." Journal of Criminial Justice, Vol. 34, No. 2, pp. 493-506. 10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2006.09.004
Jeong, C.W. (2007). A Study on Impative factors about major causes in freeway accidents. The Journal of Police Science, Vol. 7, No. 1, pp. 221-247.
Kang, J.H., Kim, K.W., Kim, S.M. (2014). "Development of the U-turn accident model at signalized intersection in urban areas by logistic regression analysis." Journal of the Korean Society on Civil Engineers, Vol. 34, No. 4, pp. 1279-1287. 10.12652/Ksce.2014.34.4.1279
Kim, S.H., Jang, J.A., Choi, K.J. (2005). "A hierarchical approach for diagnose of safety performance and factor identification for black spots(Based on Suwon-city)." Journal of Korean Society of Transportation, Vol. 23, No.1, pp. 12-19.
Lee, T.H. (2021). A Study on the Prediction of Risk Factors Affecting Chemical Accidents. Ph. D. Dissertation, Chungnam National University.
Ministry of Environment (2015). Chemicals Control Act, Korea.
Mun, S.R. (2011). "Analysis of traffic crash severity on freeway using hierarchical binomial logistic model." Korean Society of Road Engineers, Vol. 13, No. 4, pp. 199-209. 10.7855/IJHE.2011.13.4.199
National Institute of Chemical Safety (2016). Chemical Substance Comprehensive Information system (http://icis.me.go.kr).
Park, S. W. (2010). "Analysis of motor carrier crash risk with driver hours of service." Korean Society of Road Engineers, Vol. 12, No. 1, pp. 22-26.
Transport Canada (2020). 2020 Emergency Response Guidebook, Canada.

Information

Publisher :The Korean Society of Disaster Information
Publisher(Ko) :한국재난정보학회
Journal Title :Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
Journal Title(Ko) :한국재난정보학회논문집
Volume : 21
No :1
Pages :10-21
DOI :https://doi.org/10.15683/kosdi.2025.3.31.010

[1] Chung, S.B., Kim, Y.W., Park, M.K. (2011). "Developmentof HAZ-RAM for reducing HAZMAT transportation accident." Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation, Vol. 11, No. 4, pp. 87-94. 10.9798/KOSHAM.2011.11.4.087

[2] Hartley, R.D., Maddan, S., Walker, J.T. (2006). "Sentencing practices under the Arkansas sentencing guideline structure." Journal of Criminial Justice, Vol. 34, No. 2, pp. 493-506. 10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2006.09.004

[3] Jeong, C.W. (2007). A Study on Impative factors about major causes in freeway accidents. The Journal of Police Science, Vol. 7, No. 1, pp. 221-247.

[4] Kang, J.H., Kim, K.W., Kim, S.M. (2014). "Development of the U-turn accident model at signalized intersection in urban areas by logistic regression analysis." Journal of the Korean Society on Civil Engineers, Vol. 34, No. 4, pp. 1279-1287. 10.12652/Ksce.2014.34.4.1279

[5] Kim, S.H., Jang, J.A., Choi, K.J. (2005). "A hierarchical approach for diagnose of safety performance and factor identification for black spots(Based on Suwon-city)." Journal of Korean Society of Transportation, Vol. 23, No.1, pp. 12-19.

[6] Lee, T.H. (2021). A Study on the Prediction of Risk Factors Affecting Chemical Accidents. Ph. D. Dissertation, Chungnam National University.

[7] Ministry of Environment (2015). Chemicals Control Act, Korea.

[8] Mun, S.R. (2011). "Analysis of traffic crash severity on freeway using hierarchical binomial logistic model." Korean Society of Road Engineers, Vol. 13, No. 4, pp. 199-209. 10.7855/IJHE.2011.13.4.199

[9] National Institute of Chemical Safety (2016). Chemical Substance Comprehensive Information system (http://icis.me.go.kr).

[10] Park, S. W. (2010). "Analysis of motor carrier crash risk with driver hours of service." Korean Society of Road Engineers, Vol. 12, No. 1, pp. 22-26.

[11] Transport Canada (2020). 2020 Emergency Response Guidebook, Canada.

Journal of the Society of Disaster Information ISSN:1976-2208(Print) 2671-5287(Online) 한국재난정보학회논문집

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